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Blossom — Social Investing Community: Real Portfolios, Trades & Market Insights

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Mahyar
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@4mula4
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Market News · 1m

Global Defense: A Long-Term Structural Shift
Did You Know? 🧐

Multiple NATO countries have committed to raising defense expenditures, aiming for targets of up to 5% of GDP by 2035, making government defense budgets one of the most reliable multi-decade spending programs in the market today!

According to National Bank 🇨🇦, the global market outlook points to defense spending shifting from a short-term trend into a long-term structural investment cycle.

Rising geopolitical tensions and new defense commitments from NATO nations are driving governments worldwide to expand budgets. Modern defense goes beyond traditional weapons, pouring massive capital into strategic areas like artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and advanced components.

Here is how CAD and USD investors can position their portfolios to capture this evolving sector:

For US 🇺🇸 Dollar Investors (USD)

* Direct Defense Leaders:
Lockheed Martin ($LMT), RTX Corporation ($RTX), and General Dynamics ($GD) offer direct exposure to major aerospace, missile systems, and defense contracts.

* Broad Sector ETFs:
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF ($ITA) or SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF ($XAR) let you hold a diversified basket of top US defense companies.

For Canadian 🇨🇦 Dollar Investors (CAD)

* Direct & Indirect Plays:
CAE Inc. ($CAE) for military flight simulation/training technology, or global tech leaders like Bombardier ($BBD-B).

* Canadian-Listed ETFs:
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense Index ETF ($XAD) or Evolve Cyber Security Index ETF ($CYBR) to invest in defense and national security infrastructure using CAD.
—
This is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.
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Beskar Capital
@beskar_capital
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Beginner Investors · 🔥 Hot

Can You Feel It ?
Did last week scare you? 😨😱

Is today’s rate decision making you nervous?

Are you finally starting to doubt your strategy? Are you finally realizing that you don't really have full control of the steering wheel?

The water is getting rough. You can see the dark clouds gathering on the horizon.

The rapid rise in yields and oil prices is certainly something that should concern you if you're not positioned in the right area of the market.

Do you know what to make of the Fed's rate decision? 😉

Are they going to raise? Are they going to hold? Are they going to cut? What's the market reaction going to be in each of those scenarios? And what's your plan?

Or maybe you shouldn't care so much...

Because you know the playbook of the real estate/banking crisis cycle, and this event is just another milestone you're already prepared for. 😉👍

Conventional media forcing news down your throat to fatten you up like a goose.....it's just a big racket of cymbals designed to make you lose your head. You know, like those fans waving signs behind the backboard while an NBA player is at the free-throw line.

They want you to make a mistake. They want you to doubt what you've proven to yourself is a winning strategy.

Only those with the right approach and the right mentality will survive. Think Kobe Bryant like focus. That guy couldn't be bothered by any kind of distraction. Steadfast and strong. Can you say the same about your strategy? 🤔

Natural selection is alive and well.

And the predators are slowly circling the prey. You can hear the bushes rustling. 🐺🌳🦌

Only the fittest will survive. 😎

This is the Way! 🏄🌊

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Ronan
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ETFs · ⭐ Featured

Complete ETF/Sector/Asset Investment List
Since so many people ask how to invest in this sector, or this country, or this asset, I’ve decided to make a comprehensive guide on how you can invest in specific areas. This is NOT portfolio advice, simply information about tickers that you can research yourself. Save this for later so you have a list of ETFs to come back to!

Canada:

$XIU $XIC $ZCN All expose you to the TSX in Canada. These ETFs consist of all top Canadian companies and access to our national stock exchange.

$VCB $VGV $VLB $VAB $VSB $VSC $XBB $XCB Expose you to Canadian bonds; whether it be long-term, short-term, corporate, government, etc.

$VDY $XEI $CDZ Expose you to Canadian dividend companies

$XRE $ZRE $VRE Give access to Canadian REITs

$ZEB $XFN $RBNK Lets you buy the Canadian banks


USA:

$VFV $ZSP $XSP $XUS $HXS Lets you buy the S&P 500 (learn about hedged vs. unhedged in my other post)

$XQQ $HXQ $ZQQ All give you access to the NASDAQ 100

$IWR $VO $VOE $VOT $IJH $SCHM Lets you buy US Midcaps

$IJR $IWM $VB $VBR $VBK $SCHA Lets you buy US Smallcaps

$DIV $SPYD $RDIV $DHS $VIG $SCHD $VYM $DGRO $SDY Give access from small to high dividend US companies

$VTI $ITOT Lets you buy the whole US market

$TLT $IEF $VGIT $GOVT $SHY $VGLT Give access to US bonds

$XLC $XLY $XLP $XLE $XLF $XLV $XLI $XLB $XLRE $XLK $XLU All give you access to each sector in the S&P such as financials, energy, healthcare, etc.


International:

$XEQT $FEQT $VEQT $ZEQT Give you an all-in-one exposure to Canada, US, emerging and global markets.

$VEA $IEFA $SCHF $SPDW $EFV $EFA Give access to general international exposure

$EWJ $EWU $EWC Gives direct access to developed international countries

$INDA $MCHI $EWT $EWY $EWZ $EWW $EIDO $EWM Gives direct access to emerging international countries


Assets:

$KILO $PHYS $CGL Let’s you buy gold directly through ETFs

$SVR $HUZ Let you buy silver through ETFs


Savings/Interest:

$CASH $HISA $PSA $HSAV Access to Canadian savings and interest payments

$HSUV-U $PSU-U $HISU-U Access to US savings and interest payments


There’s so many ETFs I didn’t go into with dozens of categories, but this should give you some basic starting point to look into your ETF investments. This is simply the starting point, when choosing your investments always research the ETFs, what they provide to you, their fees, your goals, your risk, and what you’re looking to get out of investing.

As always do your research and happy investing!

Subscribe to the newsletter: relatablefinance.substack.com
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J superdad
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@heroic
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ETFs · 2h

Listened to the wrong people on this platform. Made some shit decisions owned it ate shit and moved on.

Bottom line listen to those who listen to themselves

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Mark Roussin@markroussinn
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Beginner Investors · 13h

With investing, when you find a disconnect between stock price going one way and business performance going another, that screams OPPORTUNITY

3 Stocks whose stock price has not kept up with strong business performance

$SOFI
$VST
$NOW
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Zarreon Prince@zarreonprince
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Rate my Portfolio · 56m

Rate this portfolio
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Paul Santori
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🔥 Hot

Thoughts?
I’ve been saying this since Elon started working on robots and all the companies creating AI.

We’re all focused on making money from tech companies but at what cost?
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Tim
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@tim_emino
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Beginner Investors · 🔥 Hot

From Fortnite to Blossom?? My journey so far 🫣
I’ve gotten to know a bunch of you through Blossom events, messages, and just being around the community, but I realized I’ve never actually shared much about myself or how I ended up here.

For those I haven’t met yet, I’m Tim, I’m 20, and I work as an intern on the Brand Partnerships team here at Blossom.

My journey here has been a pretty unconventional one.

Growing up, my entire world was gaming. I started playing Fortnite competitively at a pretty young age, eventually playing professionally and getting signed to some of the biggest organizations in esports, including Overtime.

Then, before high school, I decided to walk away from it.

I had spent so much of my childhood behind a computer that I wanted to experience a completely different side of life. Somewhere along the way, I fell in love with business.

From flipping cars, to running Amazon FBA, to starting and eventually selling a landscaping business, I was constantly trying something new. Some things worked, a lot didn’t, but I loved figuring out how to build something from nothing.

That same curiosity eventually led me to investing.

I became fascinated by the businesses behind the stocks. How they made money, why some companies won while others didn’t, and ultimately where I wanted to put my own money.

That interest eventually led me into finance and most recently private equity. For a while, I thought I’d stay on the traditional finance path.

Then I joined Blossom.

It was a completely different direction, but looking back, it brought together pretty much everything I loved: investing, entrepreneurship, technology, and building.

And it’s genuinely been some of the most fun I’ve ever had.

I’ve gotten to work on things I never expected to be doing at 20, travel across the country for BlossomCon, and learn firsthand what it takes to build a company.

But easily the best part has been the people.

Working alongside @tigertim , @maxstocks, @brandon , and the rest of the team has given me some of my favourite memories. Everyone here genuinely cares about what we’re building, moves insanely fast, and still manages to have a ton of fun doing it.

The culture being built at Blossom is something really special, and I’m incredibly excited to see where we take it.

I also want to hear from you guys.

If there’s anything you love about Blossom, think we could do better, or want to see us build in the future, drop it below or shoot me a message.

I’d genuinely love to hear it, and you’ll definitely be seeing more of me on here :)
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Maxwell
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Technology · 5d

👀 Thoughts on AI Doomerism?
Every day there's another headline about how AI is going to kill us all... with Sam Altman recently delaying the OpenAI IPO and implying that AI has a 10% chance of killing everyone by the end of the decade.

Every time I see this kind of stuff I somewhat wonder how much of it is a real risk vs a marketing play to pump the stock...

One Bloomberg opinion piece calls it "AI Panic Marketing": basically the message that "we're building a powerful, godlike AI that could end the world" is a form of advertising.

On the other side, more than 1,000 employees across the frontier labs signed a letter this summer warning that competitive pressure was preventing anyone from slowing down, so I'm not really sure what side I'm on

What do you guys think?
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Sayanh Kumar
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@sayanh
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Rate my Portfolio · 1h

Any tips
New to investing…
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Drew @yoandrewcortez
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Personal Finance · 1h

Money comes & goes. You can always make more money, but you can never make more time. Cherish the present. Spend your time wisely. Practice gratitude. Tell your family, friends, partner & pets you love them. These things are worth more than money.
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Beskar Capital
@beskar_capital
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Beginner Investors · 🔥 Hot

Christmas Comes Early! 🎅🎄
As you know from following Beskar Capital, we expected the meltup phase of the real estate/banking crisis cycle to display a significant amount of volatility. You have heard us say that 2026 would be the year of the highest volatility. If you take a moment to look back on the last 30 months, you can see it clearly. 👍

And now that Warsh believes that "those who are least well-off have the most to gain" from a rate hike while the whole lot lives on credit……….... Oh geez……this is just the beginning. ☠️⚰️

We also said this 2-3 year window would be a massive bull market, especially for those who respect the cycle and position themselves in the right areas of the market: a period to log decades of returns in a relatively short period of TIME.

This is why CALL LEAPS have been central to our approach during this run up for exploiting this expected, highly volatile market.

We are sitting on thousands and thousands of percent in UNrealized returns waiting to be collected. Those who followed us along the way have also generated life-changing returns that comes when you harvest them into realized gains.

We'd like to kick things off with one of our early followers and current members, @bucklesmob , who just recorded a 10,922% profit on XOM CALL LEAPS in less than a year. 🤑🤑🤑 💸💸💸

10,922% in less than a year. 

Beskar Capital bought these $XOM $185 CALL LEAPS in November 2025, so we’ll assume Bucky did around the same period (we are still holding half of ours).

Hey, conventionalists - read that again: 10,922% in less than a year. 

At your 10% index annualized return, it would take you ~49.3 years to achieve the same result. 🤣🤯🤦

Had you bought a mere $200 worth of those contracts, you would have turned that $200 into a staggering gain of $21,844 in less than a year. 🏆🏆🏆

Had you bought $1,000 worth of those contracts, you would have turned that $1,000 into a staggering gain of $109,220 in less than a year. 🏆🏆🏆

Here's the link if you don't believe it:
https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/Untitled-Post__POST-1789513298473-8HnZUWhJ_7rpNEkzTSNeV9s5z 

All right. Are you back? Did you wipe your glasses or rub your eyes?? Is your blood pressure back to normal???

Yes, still 10,922% in less than a year.

Just think about that for a second and tell me with a straight face that the 36+ years I spent studying the markets and developing strategies to read and listen to them were a waste of TIME. 

Tell me with a straight face that you still don't believe it is a good idea to be an active and UNconventional investor when you have the right tools and the right strategies. 😂

And it's not just me. You can do it too!!! The proof is right above. ☝️

When I keep telling you that you can log DECADES of returns in this 5x in a lifeTIME, 2-year TIMEframe, this is what I mean.

When I keep telling you that you just need one WIN to generate massive profits, this is what I mean.

Maybe Bucky spent $10,000 on options. Maybe the other $9,000 expired worthless. But IT DOESN'T MATTER, because this one winning contract returned more than $100,000 in less than 12 months.

Do you still believe that the conventional ways are the best ways?

OK, Beskar, but why did you say it was Christmas?

Well, we have so many CALL LEAPS contracts expiring in January 2027 that this 4th quarter will be a period when we slowly start selling them for AMAZING PROFITS. And since we have so many of them, we think this selling period could be like an Advent calendar.

You know those little calendars where you get to eat a chocolate for each day of December until Christmas? 

That's what we plan to do, but instead of chocolates, we will likely trim these LEAP option contracts and collect a few thousand dollars every day until Christmas.

What can I say, I have a sweet tooth. 🍫🍭 😂

One final point I want to touch on.

Please don't think you can just go buy any CALL LEAPS and generate these kinds of returns. Every option contract I buy is the result of a specific set of conditions and considerations. And know that PUT LEAPS can be even juicier!

Keep in mind that I cap options at a fixed percentage of my portfolio, and that options are a specific tool in the KTS approach that is not recommended at all TIMES. In fact, I don't use options most of the TIME.

But the specific period of TIME when I do use them is not over yet, and I am still posting options trades on our member website, though not necessarily in the areas of the market you would expect if you relied solely on what I have published on Blossom over the last 2 years.

If you are interested in taking advantage of these special TIMES and getting the chance to apply UNconventional tools and strategies for amazing outperformance, I share all of my trades and strategies on our website.

I always give you my best. 🏆

This is the Way! 🏄🌊

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Krish Sarker
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ETFs · 2h

First Year of Investing Completed
19yrs old! Leave some tips in the comments!!
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Buythedip
@buythedipzw
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Beginner Investors · 2h

Portfolio 3.0
Drop your thoughts in the comments below⬇️

Should I go through with this? 🫣 or 🥰
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Zain @zains
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Beginner Investors · ⭐ Featured

Beginner’s Guide to Stock Market Terms
One of the best parts about the Blossom community is how open everyone is sharing knowledge and experiences.

To make things easier for anyone just starting their investing journey, here’s a simple glossary to help understand and simplify various terms.

Common Terms:

Dividend: A share of a company’s profits paid to shareholders, usually quarterly.

Ex-Dividend Date: The cutoff date by which you must own a stock to receive its next dividend.

ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund): A fund that holds multiple stocks or bonds, traded like a single stock.

Covered Call ETF: An ETF that owns stocks and sells call options to generate extra income (higher yield, limited / capped upside).

Earnings Report: A company’s quarterly financial performance summary.

EPS (Earnings Per Share): A company’s profit divided by its number of shares.

Market Cap: A company’s total value (share price × number of shares).

ACB: The total amount you’ve paid for an investment, including the purchase price plus any fees or commissions.

Book Value: The value of a company according to its financial statements (assets minus liabilities).

Yield: Annual dividend as a percentage of the stock/ETF price.

Liquidity: How easily an asset can be bought or sold without impacting its price.

Volatility: The degree of price fluctuations in a stock or market.

Index: A benchmark of stocks (e.g., S&P 500, Nasdaq, TSX).

Bull Market: A period of rising stock prices and optimism.

Bear Market: A period of declining stock prices and pessimism.

False Breakout: When a stock’s price moves above (or below) a key level, making it look like a new trend is starting, but then quickly reverses back.

P/E Ratio: Price-to-earnings ratio (stock price ÷ EPS), used to assess valuation.

Blue Chip: Well-established, financially strong companies with a track record of stability.

Diversification: Spreading investments across assets to reduce risk.

Broker: A platform or firm that facilitates buying and selling investments.

Limit Order: An order to buy/sell a stock at a specific price or better.

Market Order: An order to buy/sell a stock immediately at the current market price.

Bid/Ask Spread: The difference between the highest price buyers offer and the lowest price sellers accept.

Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA): Investing a fixed amount regularly to reduce the impact of market swings.

Capital Gain/Loss: Profit or loss from selling an investment for more/less than its purchase price.

IPO: When a company first sells shares to the public.

Index Fund: A fund designed to mirror the performance of a market index.

Short Selling: Selling borrowed shares, hoping to buy them back cheaper.

Margin: Borrowing money from a broker to buy investments, which amplifies gains and losses.

Margin Requirement: The minimum amount of your own money (equity) you must maintain in a margin account to open or keep a leveraged investment position.

Margin Call: A demand from your broker to deposit more funds or sell assets because your account equity has fallen below the required margin level.

Time Horizon: The length of time you plan to hold an investment before needing the money. Short horizons = more risk-sensitive, long horizons = more room to ride out volatility.

Stock Split / Reverse Split: A split increases the number of shares (e.g., 2-for-1) while lowering the price per share. A reverse split reduces the number of shares (e.g., 1-for-10) while raising the price per share. Your overall value doesn’t change just the math.

Long (Being Long): Buying a stock or asset because you expect the price to go up.

Short (Being Short): Selling a stock you don’t own because you expect the price to go down, so you can buy it back cheaper later.

TER: The total yearly cost of owning a fund, including the management fee plus other costs like administration, audits, and legal fees.

MER: The annual cost that a fund charges for management (includes any leverage costs if used).

Management Fee: A portion of the MER that goes directly to the fund managers for running the fund.

Withholding Tax: A tax deducted on dividends/distributions from foreign investments (e.g., U.S. dividends to Canadian investors face a 15% withholding in TFSA/Non-Registered accounts).

Total Returns: The full picture of an investment’s performance, including both price gains and dividends/distributions.

CAGR: The average yearly growth of an investment over time.

NAV: The price of one share of a fund (stock or etf)

NAV Depreciation: When the fund’s share price goes down over time.

Mutual Fund: A pool of money from many investors used to buy a mix of stocks, bonds, or other assets.

Bond: A loan you give to a company or government, and they pay you back with interest.

Asset: Anything valuable you own that can generate money.

Portfolio: Your collection of investments.

Option: A contract that gives you the right (but not the obligation) to buy or sell a stock at a set price.

Future: A contract to buy or sell something at a set price on a future date.

REIT: A company that owns real estate and pays investors income from rent.

Alpha: A measure of how much better (or worse) an investment did compared to the market.

Beta: A measure of how much an investment moves compared to the market.

Sharpe Ratio: A way to see if returns are worth the risk taken.

Hedging: Protecting your investments from risk.

Rebalancing: Adjusting your portfolio back to your target mix of assets.

FCF: Free Cash Flow

Understanding these terms makes investing far less intimidating.

If anyone feels other terms should be included, please share in the comments.

I’ll update this post so we can build a complete beginner-friendly resource together!


*Sorry tagged a few etfs for reach 🫣
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The Market Matrix
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Market News · 🔥 Hot

Nearing extreme fear while the $VIX is at 17.

It’s been more than a year since we’ve seen extreme greed.

Hovered over greed for some time but it’s been a routine of being under neutral for some time now.

Massive day tomorrow, buckle up.
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Ian Lopuch
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Community · 5d

Annual Coffee ☕️ With Retire With Ryne 🎉
Life is amazing! 🎉 I had the honor of meeting up with my friend @ryne for our annual Starbucks coffee. ☕️ I think this is year 3? 🕰️ This time around, we enjoyed Starbucks at Aria. 🎰 Fun fact: Realty Income, a REIT I own, has a preferred equity investment in Aria/City Center. I’m honored to call Ryne my friend, and he is an inspirational investor, athlete, and overall person. I’m grateful for the friendships I have made thanks to my investing, perhaps the greatest dividend of the dividend journey. 📈 (Disc: I’m long $O and $SBUX. Not investment advice.) #dividend #dividends #stocks #investing #retirewithryne
1,870 views
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JAYB @jbbltrades
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Milestones · 2h

🔥 JB TRADE RECAP 📅 September 16, 2026

📊 PERFORMANCE

• Total Trades: 17
• Winning Trades: 16 🏆
• Losing Trades: 1
• Win Rate: 94.1% 🔥
• Best Trade: $QQQ 705P +402%
• Total Winning Setups: 16 🍏

🍏 CLOSED TRADES

• $QQQ 705P → +402% 🍏
• $SPY 753P → +308% 🍏
• $BA 200P → +268% 🍏
• $CRCL 85P → +214% 🍏
• $MU 900P → +110% 🍏
• $QQQ 713C → +110% 🍏
• $SPY 764C → +86% 🍏
• $QQQ 701P → +85% 🍏
• $SOUN 6P → +60% 🍏
• $TSLA 362.5P → +46% 🍏
• $SPY 763C → +41% 🍏
• $AMZN 250C → +18% 🍏
• $TSLA → +13% 🍏
• $XLF 56C → +9% 🍏
• $INTC 102C → +7% 🍏
• $DELL 600C → +0%
• $SPY 765C → -50% 🍎

📈 OPEN SWINGS

• $SMH 🟢
• $SPX 🟢
• $XLF 🟢

👑 16 WINS · 1 LOSS
94.1% WIN RATE

Another strong session. Profits locked losses controlled and the swings are still running.
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The Market Matrix
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Market News · 1d

RATE HIKE!

Federal Reserve officially hikes interest rates by 25 basis points - first rate hike since July 2023.

12 Fed officials think we get 1 more rate hike in 2026

$QQQ relatively no movement so far..
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Perry's PIIverse
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Passive Income · 3d

My Income Port After 3 Yrs Retired
3 years ago this month ... two major life events happened to me... I retired after a 37 year career... and in the same year 8 months before I retired... I decided to TOTALLY OVERHAUL all my bank manged portfolio into my PIIVERSE Income portfolio... including commuting my pension into it.

looking back after 3 years... my retirement transition journey... and how my income portfolio has been successful beyond what I imagined...

https://youtu.be/Y4ePJ27XlXE
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Joseph Hogue CFA
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Market News · 🔥 Hot

Buying the Dip... but NOT Every Dip
The September dip is creating some buying opportunities…but I’m definitely NOT buying every dip. 📉
Here are three areas I’m watching right now and the stocks that stand out. [Full video linked below]

🔐 CYBERSECURITY
Cybersecurity continues to be one of my highest-conviction themes. AI spending is exploding, and whether AI becomes the productivity revolution we’ve been promised or creates an entirely new generation of cyber threats, companies simply can’t afford to cut security spending.
I’m not trying to pick one winner here. I own the group:

• CrowdStrike (CRWD)
• Fortinet (FTNT)
• Zscaler (ZS)
• Okta (OKTA)
• Palo Alto Networks (PANW)

These stocks aren’t cheap, but the growth and long-term spending theme are why I continue to hold them. 🛡️

💻 SOFTWARE
Software is getting much more complicated. AI could pressure traditional subscription revenue for some companies, and recent earnings have shown why investors need to be picky. But that same disruption is creating opportunities in companies positioned around AI agents, cloud infrastructure and orchestration.

Four I’m watching on the dip:
ServiceNow (NOW)
Snowflake (SNOW)
Datadog (DDOG)
Cloudflare (NET)
ServiceNow is still down sharply this year, while Cloudflare is positioning itself as an important middleman between AI agents and model usage. These are the kinds of software names I want to watch as the market separates AI winners from potential losers. 🤖

✈️ TRAVEL & THE CONSUMER
This is where I’m much more cautious. Travel stocks have been falling, but I’m less interested in buying the dip than in what that weakness may be telling us about the U.S. consumer. We’ve already seen warning signs from retailers, and weakness spreading into travel could be another signal that consumers are finally feeling the pressure. That’s why consumer-related stocks—especially travel and retail—are the major area I’m avoiding right now. ⚠️

And the next big test comes next week: Costco earnings.
Costco could give us another important read on consumer spending and whether recent weakness is isolated…or becoming something much bigger for the economy.

There are plenty of dips worth buying. The trick is knowing which dips might keep dipping. Check out Wednesday's video here for full analysis into each of these trends and what I'm buying https://youtu.be/IjYr5acuBT4
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Canadian Investor@canadianinvestor
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Passive Income · 2d

Income Investing Is Not the Problem
Income investing is not the problem, it can provide an investor with cash flow and remove some decision-making, which can be beneficial. But there are things it cannot do that some investors assume it can, and I believe that is largely due to how many funds are marketed and the rise of social media.

Older income investors have seen this before. A long time ago, many funds were playing with higher distribution rates, and many of the problems that people are now seeing with covered call funds are not new. People just have short memories and do not look at the past, so we are dealing with a similar issue once again.

A distribution rate is not the same thing as income, and the way to know whether your fund is producing enough return to support its distribution is to look at total return. The problem is that total return is a trailing metric. We don't know in advance whether the fund will earn enough to support its distribution rate, and there can be periods where a fund is crushing it and other periods where it goes through years of underperformance.

It can be the same fund. While the fund you are investing in today might be killing it, in a year or two it might not be, and that could be due to any number of reasons. The more thematic the fund is, the more likely money is to move in and out of that sector compared with a fund that is more broadly diversified.

I've seen two posts recently that show one of the biggest problems in income investing: investors misunderstanding distribution yield and total return.

One post was from an investor who said they were already generating about $1,200 a month from covered calls and believed that would allow them to retire much sooner with far less money invested than people normally say they need. This is something that is often pushed by retail investors, and I have yet to see a fund company come out and say anything similar. They generally talk about total return as well. That is more than likely related to the regulatory constraints they operate under.
The second post was much more intentional. The investor named specific funds and said their goal was to eventually generate $400 a month in distributions to pay their car insurance. That example is easier to look at because we can actually take the fund, its distribution, the amount being invested, and start to see where the math begins to break down.

The fund currently pays $0.255 per share twice per month and is trading at $22.82, giving it a current annualized distribution rate of about 26.8%. They want to generate $400 a month to pay for their car insurance.

Starting with an existing portfolio of about $1,280, adding $100 every two weeks, and reinvesting all of the twice-monthly distributions, the portfolio could theoretically grow to around $18,000 in roughly 3.5 years if the share price stayed around $22.82 and the $0.255 distribution remained unchanged.

Those last two points are important because since the fund launched in this current bull market, the unit price has dropped about 8%, and the distribution has already been reduced once.
Now fast-forward and assume they dropped the whole amount in today and were generating $400 a month. If they withdrew the full $400 every month, that would be $4,800 per year, or almost 27% of an $18,000 portfolio.

For that withdrawal rate to be sustainable without steadily consuming the portfolio, the investment would have to generate roughly that amount through actual total return over time. Simply distributing 27% does not mean the portfolio earned 27%.

There was a recent YouTube video where the person mentioned seeing an ad showing a 13% distribution yield and thinking, "How is this possible?" They investigated, learned about covered calls, decided that it was possible, and so began their journey.

Not once while they were telling the story did they mention looking at the fund's total return or even talking about it, only the advertised distribution yield. That is the exact issue that has been a long-standing problem in the income investing space: focusing on how much a fund distributes without first asking how much the investment is actually earning.

Fund companies, when they go on interviews and sit on panels, often tell investors to look at total return and not just the distribution yield. There is a whole thing about not making portfolio decisions based on the distribution yield. Yet many funds are marketed heavily using the distribution yield rather than total return.

That is somewhat understandable because future total return is unknown and historical total return is a trailing metric. You could have a great total return for a few years, and then it could be horrible and the fund could erode its NAV.

Retail investors become very effective marketers for these products. They can make aggressive or just plain ridiculous claims about what is sustainable, focus entirely on yield, and build entire YouTube channels or social media accounts around how much "income" a portfolio produces. Fund companies are incentivized to gather more assets under management because that generates more fees, and they can benefit from that attention without directly making those claims themselves. They can appear on those channels and talk about total return without substantiating the creator's claims, but simply appearing can make it seem like they support them.

Looking at your portfolio and saying it pays you $5,000 a month means nothing if you have to reinvest the full $5,000 to maintain the capital.

I know there are a lot of people who do not like Adriano or his investing style, and I would call him more of a covered call investor than an income investor since he doesn’t really diversify his sources of income. But on his channel, at least, he isn’t making ridiculous claims. He continuously mentions that total return is what matters. He walks people through how to calculate the total return and while you might not agree with how he invests or what he invests in at least you can’t say he’s out making outlandish unsupported claims about what income investing can actually do. 

If your total return over time is sufficient to support the amount you are spending, you can make the strategy work. Could you have made more investing in another fund with uncapped upside? Sure. But will the portfolio still support your spending? If the answer is yes and that fits your lifestyle, then who cares?

The problem is when you are watching channels that aren’t looking at the fund’s total return at all. They are talking almost entirely about the yield and basing their investment decisions on the fund’s advertised distribution rate. That isn’t doing anyone any favors.

At the end of the day, income investing is not the problem. The problem is confusing the amount a fund distributes with the amount the investment actually earns. There is nothing wrong with wanting cash flow, using covered calls, or choosing a fund that pays a higher distribution if it fits your goals. But the distribution itself does not tell you whether the strategy is working.

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Nate
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Beginner Investors · 17h

🤖 AI investing is getting interesting!
An Anthropic researcher recently said he believes there’s a >10% chance AI could kill all humans within the next decade, while Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei is calling for the industry to slow down and focus more on safety.
So I’m curious, what does everyone think about investing in AI with all of these concerns coming out?
I own $NVDA and still think AI could be one of the biggest technological shifts of our lifetime, but I also think the risks are worth talking about.
Would these warnings make you invest less in AI, or are you still bullish long term?
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Moe
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Beginner Investors · 3d

New Series Alert: Hidden Gems of the counter cycle
It's been a few weeks since we started one of these series… “Hedge Fund Hunt” took a lot of effort and I needed a break 😅

Now that the Q2 hunt is over I'm back with time on my hands and a lot of research already underway to discover new hidden gems that can behave positively when the times get tough or at least stand their ground during an economical downturn.

I’m going to cover a number of stocks in this series that fall into 1 of 2 categories:

1. Truly counter cycle - It goes up when the market goes down… these are companies that thrive in a recession.

2. Defensive/Low beta - These are not ones that thrive in a downturn, but rather hold their ground when the times get tough because consumers will keep buying.

Now I know what some of you are thinking... Here’s another post telling us about Walmart and Dollar General... If that's what you think then you don't know me very well 😁😁

Every company I share in this series will be one that isn't hyped or commonly known and definitely not on Blossom’s top 50... you’ll be happily surprised I promise.

And if you want a teaser just check out $ECPG for now and how it's behaving right now.

First hidden gem drops Wednesday, follow my account to keep track if interested.
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🤖 Is AI Doomerism a Marketing Ploy?

🙄 Yes, it's just a way to hype the stock

😰 No, it's a real risk / genuine

🤷 Not sure / somewhere in between

593 votes · 13h left