The Dow lost 627 points yesterday, down 1.17% to 52,786. The Nasdaq finished within a rounding error of flat, off about two tenths. The S&P split the difference at 7,673, down 0.56%. That gap is the whole session and it deserves more attention than the index number. What did the damage was oil. Brent pushed above $99 and West Texas traded near $94, after Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities wounded more than seventy people and started fires, and Iran promised to act against any threat even before it materialises. Two months ago Brent was $72. It is now up nearly forty percent in that stretch. Add Canada's retaliatory tariffs on twenty billion dollars of American goods taking effect, at rates between fifteen and fifty percent, and the ten year sitting near 4.80%, and you have three separate taxes landing on the industrial economy at once. Which is exactly who paid. Transport, manufacturing, consumer names, the whole old economy took it. Small business sentiment agreed, with the NFIB index falling 1.1 points to 98.7. Technology barely flinched. Now to what actually moved, because the single stock story yesterday was better than the macro one. Qualcomm signed a multi generation agreement to supply Amazon Web Services with custom silicon for artificial intelligence infrastructure, covering both inference accelerators and optical connectivity up to 1.6 terabits. No financial terms, no volume commitments and no deployment timeline were disclosed, and the relevant products sample in 2027 and reach commercial availability in 2028. So price it as a 2028 revenue event rather than a 2026 one. But the strategic read is immediate. This is Qualcomm's second such deal after Meta in June, it lands two weeks after Amazon committed to two million more Nvidia chips, and it means the largest cloud provider on earth is now simultaneously Nvidia's biggest customer and the sponsor of two competing silicon programmes. Everybody is hedging everybody. Intel rose about nine percent on an upgrade and the same custom silicon enthusiasm. NuScale Power jumped nearly seventeen percent, which is the power bottleneck trade continuing to work. CoreWeave added almost twelve and DigitalOcean eleven. Nebius rose about eleven percent to around $254 after Palantir named it preferred sovereign artificial intelligence infrastructure partner, and at a Goldman fireside management said all four of the billion dollar client wins reported last quarter are now in extension talks for Vera Rubin capacity. Standing disclosure, that is my largest position. The losers tell you more. Astera Labs fell 7.3%. Shopify fell 7.6%, Expedia 7.8%, Baidu 7%, GoPro 15%. And Salesforce and Intuit each dropped around four percent on renewed worry that frontier models eat application software. Look carefully at that list, because the lazy version of yesterday is semis up and software down. That is not what happened. Intel gained nine percent while Astera Labs lost seven, and both are semiconductors. What actually separated winners from losers was proximity to custom silicon news. The names that benefit from hyperscalers designing their own chips went up. The names that sell into the incumbent architecture went down. This was a rotation inside the artificial intelligence trade rather than out of it, and if you were positioned by sector rather than by supply chain position, you got the wrong answer. In healthcare, Novartis fell nearly thirteen percent on a trial failure and Amgen six percent on a downgrade, while Roivant rose almost nineteen on positive phase two data. And worth noting for anyone who follows insider activity, Uber's president and chief operating officer Andrew Macdonald bought seventy thousand shares for roughly $5.3 million at about $76. Executives sell for a hundred reasons and buy for one. Today is light on data and heavy on theatre. There are no scheduled economic releases. Apple holds its product event this afternoon with the iPhone 18 line expected, the first full launch cycle under John Ternus, and Treasury runs three year and ten year note auctions which will tell us more about actual demand for American paper than any commentary will. Watch whether the ten year holds 4.80%. Watch whether Brent takes $100, because that is a psychological level with a headline attached and it feeds straight into Friday's inflation print through gasoline. Then the week turns serious. Thursday brings producer prices, jobless claims and a European Central Bank decision, and after the close, Oracle. That report is the most important thing on the calendar this week and almost nobody is framing it properly. Oracle carries a backlog of roughly $638 billion, up 363% on the year, and guides fiscal 2027 revenue to about $90 billion. It also burned $23.7 billion of free cash flow last year building the data centres to service that backlog, and it has taken a credit downgrade for the trouble. Options price a move of roughly eleven percent. Every argument this market has had since August about whether the buildout is funded by customers or by lenders gets a very direct answer on Thursday night. Friday is August consumer inflation, with consensus at 3.4% headline against a core rate currently running at 2.5%. Given oil has added nearly forty percent in two months and the services prices index just hit its highest since 2022, the risk on that print is asymmetric to the upside. And then look at what sits immediately behind it. The Federal Reserve decides on the sixteenth with markets pricing a hike at roughly sixty percent. Two days later, the eighteenth brings the largest options expiry ever recorded, with about $9.6 trillion of exposure rolling off through that date and $6.2 trillion on the day itself, roughly thirty five percent of all outstanding American options exposure. Citadel Securities makes the point that matters, which is that the long gamma dealer positioning that has been suppressing volatility all summer decays alongside that expiry. Semiconductor implied volatility has already fallen forty percent in thirty sessions to below where it was before the run up. Their advice is to use strength to trim and to buy protection while it is cheap. For balance, Ryan Detrick at Carson notes that when August closes green in a year already running strong, September has historically averaged a gain of one percent rather than the loss its reputation suggests. Seasonality is not destiny and the sample is small, but it is a fair corrective to the September doom that has been on everyone's timeline for a fortnight. So here is where I come out. Yesterday was not a risk off day, it was an energy tax landing on the physical economy while the digital one carried on. That can continue for a while, and it has been continuing for a month. What changes it is either oil taking $100 and staying there, which starts feeding the inflation numbers directly, or Oracle telling us on Thursday that the buildout is harder to fund than the backlog implies. Nine days from now we get a Federal Reserve decision, an inflation print, an Oracle report and the biggest expiry in history, and the market walks into all of it with volatility priced near the lows. That is not a forecast. It is just an unusually poor risk reward for complacency.read more
Today was another powerful day in the market, and I wanted to share a glimpse of what I was able to accomplish alongside my trading community. The positions shown here are: $AMD$475 Call – Sept. 18, 2026: +$251,500 $NBIS$220 Call – Sept. 18, 2026: +$224,000 $INTC$89 Call – Sept. 18, 2026: +$121,250 $ASTS$54 Call – Sept. 18, 2026: +$77,250 That’s approximately $674,000 profit But before anyone looks at these numbers and thinks this post is about showing off, that is not my intention at all. I’m not posting this to make anyone feel behind, to compete with anyone, or to make trading look easy. I’m sharing it because I know there are people here who are learning, people who are trying to understand options, and people who sometimes need to see that patience and discipline can eventually produce results. The money is not the most important part of this post. The process is. Behind every profitable position is analysis, preparation, patience, risk management, and the willingness to sit through uncertainty without allowing emotions to control the decision. And just as important, there are losing trades and lessons that never make a screenshot like this. Trading is not about winning every trade. No trader can do that. What matters is learning how to manage risk when you’re wrong and knowing how to capitalize when your analysis plays out. ⚠️ PLEASE READ THIS BEFORE LOOKING AT THE POSITION SIZE I especially want beginners to understand this. The screenshots show 100 contracts, but that does not mean anyone following my setups should be taking a position anywhere close to that size. These are positions in my own account based on my personal capital, account size, risk tolerance, experience, and trading plan. I never want someone to look at my results and feel like they have to match my position size in order to participate. Whenever I drop a setup inside my trading community, I make it clear that 1 or 2 contracts is okay for someone who has the appropriate account size and understands the risk involved. The number of contracts you trade should make sense for your own account, not mine. There is absolutely nothing wrong with taking 1 contract, 2 contracts, or even sitting out if the setup doesn’t fit your risk plan. The goal is not to trade big. The goal is to trade smart. Please don’t see a large position and think you need to duplicate it. You don’t need 100 contracts to become a successful trader. You need to learn how to identify quality setups, understand your entry, manage your risk, respect your stop, take profits when appropriate, and remain disciplined. Options can produce significant gains, but they can also produce significant losses. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose, and never copy another trader’s position size simply because you see a large profit on a screenshot. My goal with sharing these trades is to show what preparation and execution can look like, not to encourage anyone to take unnecessary risk. If you’re still learning, start small. Learn the mechanics. Understand the Greeks. Understand expiration and implied volatility. Learn how to manage a position before worrying about making a large amount of money. Build the skill first. The money comes second. And above everything else, I give God the glory for allowing me to see another day, another opportunity, and another successful trading session. 🙏 A PRAYER OF GRATITUDE 🙏 Heavenly Father, thank You for blessing me with another day, another opportunity to learn, work, grow, and provide value to the people around me. Thank You for the wisdom, patience, discipline, and strength You continue to give me. I don’t take any success for granted. I know that every opportunity, every lesson, and every new day is a blessing. Keep me humble when things go well, teach me when things don’t go according to plan, and continue to guide my decisions. And Lord, I also pray for everyone reading this post. Whatever season they are currently in, please give them strength, wisdom, patience, and courage. Bless their families, their businesses, their careers, their finances, and their goals. For those who are struggling, give them hope. For those who are learning, give them understanding. For those who are waiting for their breakthrough, give them patience. And for those who are already blessed, remind them to remain humble and grateful. May everyone reading this continue moving forward, one step at a time. Amen. “Trust in the Lord with all your heart and lean not on your own understanding; in all your ways submit to him, and he will make your paths straight. Do not be wise in your own eyes; fear the Lord and shun evil. This will bring health to your body and nourishment to your bones.” – Proverbs 3:5–8 I’m grateful for today, grateful for the lessons, grateful for the people who continue to support me, and most importantly, grateful for the opportunity to keep learning and growing every single day. To everyone working toward their own goals, keep going. Your journey may look different from someone else’s, and that’s okay. Stay patient, stay disciplined, stay humble, and keep putting in the work. Success doesn’t happen overnight, but every day you choose to learn, improve, and keep moving forward, you are building something. I pray that the days ahead bring you peace, wisdom, progress, and many reasons to smile. May we continue to grow together, celebrate each other’s wins, learn from our losses, and never forget to be grateful for how far we’ve already come. Here’s to more growth, more wisdom, more discipline, and better days ahead. 🙏 God bless you and your families, and thank you for being part of this journey with me. ❤️ This post is for educational and informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to copy these trades. Options involve substantial risk, and position size should always be appropriate for your individual account and risk tolerance. read more
I am currently 47 years old. Unfortunately in that time frame I have lost a lot of family members. Some (most) were accidents, some to age, some to cancer, and one to suicide. That’s 11 deaths total. Only 1 person out of 11 had a will. When you are grieving the last thing you want to do is close an estate up. It’s even harder if nothing has been prepared in advance. After the initial shock of the death settles (the phase where everyone is usually nice), greed comes through in a most alarming manner. I’ve watched people turn into monsters. Make sure you have a will!!!! or people will fight.  I know most people hate thinking about their death or their spouses death but honestly it’s just a fact of life. I’ve personally been the executor of 2 estates now. This is my advice: 1. If your young get life insurance. If you’re retired it’s not worth it. 2. Make sure you have a will. 3. Make sure you have a personal directive. 4. Make sure you have a power of attorney set up. 5. If your married make your spouse the beneficiary of your TFSA and RRSP(has to be done through the account not the will), they will roll into the spouses account without taxation. 6. If you’re married, and you own a house, make sure both names are on the title, joint tenant, NOT tenant in common. This activates right of survivorship on property and doesn’t have to go through the estate. 7. If you’re married, both people should have their name on all the vehicles, joint, otherwise it’s a headache after death. 8. Buy a file folding system. I have a plastic one that has a clasp and handle. 9. Put EVERYTHING in this file folder that would be needed if you died tomorrow. a) all land titles B) information on house insurance so it can either be eventually canceled or name changed over. C) your will (or the location of your will),  power of attorney, and personal directive D) the information for your car, car insurance, and registration on vehicles. E) information on life insurance. F) all current year papers needed for filing your taxes. Because the survivor will have to do it and will need that information. G) where your household bills are. ALL OF THEM, electricity, gas, Netflix, magazine, subscriptions everything you can think of that is in their name. Because you are going to have to cancel them. H) their credit card information where to contact to cancel the cards I) birth certificate, SIN numbers, marriage, license, etc. J) information on all your investments accounts, bank accounts, etc. K) anything else you can think of for your situation If you’re married, I’d have one box per person. When you die, the funeral home will issue many death certificates. And your lawyer will give you copies of the will. These will be needed to change over any accounts. Everything else goes through the estate which is taxed and the lawyers take their fees so I’d avoid this as much as possible especially if you’re married. This is why having property in both people‘s names is so important because it doesn’t have to go through probate. I am widowed now and I have my black file folder and my two remaining children know if something happens to me, all they have to do is grab the folder. Everything they need to take care of my estate will be located in this folder. At the beginning of every year, I open this file up and go through everything to make sure it’s up-to-date. If you are young and do not own much or can’t afford a will, you can draft one up but it must be handwritten to be classified as a legal document. You cannot type it out!! If you’re not worth much, everything will most likely be sold to pay your bills and cover your funeral expenses. But you can state who your executor will be in your handwritten will.  Disclaimer I’m not a lawyer or an accountant and this is not legal advice. Talk to a lawyer and talk to an accountant. Make sure everything is set up for you and your situation. These are situations that I personally ran into. Good luck Also I’ll add in. IF you have a lot of assets make an appointment with your accountant first. They will tell you how to properly set things up. Then take that information to your lawyer. read more
Corporate $BTC Accumulation Is Still Moving at Different Speeds. Bitcoin remains a major treasury asset for a growing group of public companies, but their accumulation strategies are far from identical: ⚫ Take Strive. They have recently acquired 1,375 BTC (for ~$109 million) at an average price of $79,281, bringing its reported holdings to 24,531 BTC. That followed another purchase of 1,800 BTC for $143 million at a similar average price. 🟠 ANd then look at Strategy - who despite being closely associated with corporate $BTC accumulation, has also directed attention toward repurchasing STRC shares rather than consistently adding Bitcoin. The broader takeaway is that corporate Bitcoin exposure is no longer defined by a single playbook. Some companies continue accumulating aggressively, while others are balancing BTC purchases with wider capital-allocation decisions. read more
Getting to 50 shares of $NVDA has been the most exhausting uphill battle ever, I WILL MAKE IT TO 50 SHARES, EVEN IF IT KILLS ME. Ok, well actually I take that back, I'd preferably be alive to enjoy it.
Stock Deep dive : Hims & Hers ($HIMS) Eighteen months ago Hims & Hers was a ten-bagger with a Super Bowl ad. Today it is 59% below that high, eleven of its fifteen analysts say Hold, and when it reported 38% growth and a record subscriber addition last month the stock went down. I own it, in my usual covered call structure, and I went into this rebuild expecting to find a forgotten bargain. Instead the seven year charts showed a gross margin that has fallen every year since 2023, a balance sheet that quietly went from no debt to $1.4 billion of obligations, and a discounted cash flow model that, on assumptions kinder than anything the company has delivered. Then I ran it backwards and found what the market is really paying for: a 25% margin that Hims has never come close to earning. This is the full autopsy, every assumption on the table, and an honest account of why I am still holding, at what price I would add, and at what price I will happily be taken out. https://cycledesk.substack.com/p/hims-and-hers-hims-the-superstar?r=7unzzg&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
August was quite the month for me and my portfolio, I didn’t even realize it was up so much in such a short period of time 1) This massive month came from a lot of stocks that I have held for many months/years 2) I only made 1 trade in the month because I’m trying to stay patient and sit on my hands with my cash 3) I also made ~$30 in dividends in the month, which isn’t much, but I am also not focused on dividends at all, so it’s pretty cool to see 4) I’m 22 and my portfolio grew by more than $20k in 1 month… that’s absolutely surreal to me and it still doesn’t even feel real. Obviously it’s unrealized gains, but its ridiculous regardless, and I don’t share this to boast. When I was 18, I started a portfolio with a couple of hundred dollars and have stayed extremely consistent over the past 4 years. If I can do it, so can you! $PLTR$ZETA$ELF$PGYread more
Learning to cut your losses and move on is part of investing. When a company like MPW who got wrecked by both the pandemic and bad decision making from leadership, it is best to let go no matter how hopeful and attached you are with the stock. MPW was one of my first reits and the dividend was so good. I wish them well tho
I'm sure we've all heard some sort of phrase along the lines of... “Our parents could buy a house on one income. Today, two incomes can barely cover rent.” And honestly, there’s some truth to it.Housing is more expensive. Groceries are more expensive. Cars, childcare, insurance, and basically everything else costs more than it used to. But I also think there’s another side to the conversation that we don’t talk about enough. A lot of us have quietly increased our standard of living without realizing how much it’s costing us. Think about what the everyday folks are paying for.... • $4–$8 coffees several times a week • Restaurants multiple times a week • Food delivery because we don’t feel like cooking • Two expensive vehicles sitting in the driveway • A $100+ phone plan for the newest device • Amazon packages arriving every other day • Gym memberships we barely use • Concerts, sports, vacations and weekend getaways • Buy-now-pay-later purchases spread across multiple accounts None of these things individually make someone financially irresponsible. It’s the accumulation. The problem is that modern consumption is incredibly easy. Want dinner? Tap an app. Want a new phone? Finance it. Want new clothes? Put it on a payment plan. Want a vacation? “Book now, pay later.” Want something from Amazon? It can be at your door tomorrow. Our grandparents didn’t necessarily have better financial discipline because they were inherently better with money.They simply had fewer ways to spend it. Today's middle class is living like the rich back compare to folks in the 1950s. Our standard of living has increased so much... There was no algorithm constantly showing you things you “need.” No monthly subscription for every possible form of entertainment.No food delivery sitting two taps away. No ability to finance practically anything. And definitely no Instagram convincing you that everyone else is living better than you. Meanwhile, someone can have a $700 car payment, $150 phone bill, $200 in subscriptions, $500 in restaurants and another $300 in random spending… …and then wonder why they can't save $20,000 for a down payment or invest any $ Yes, the cost of living has changed. Yes, housing affordability is a serious problem. But personal spending habits still matter. If your income increases by $1,000/month and your lifestyle immediately increases by $1,000/month, you didn't actually get ahead. You just upgraded your lifestyle. For me, building wealth is about intentionally directing money toward things that can grow over time, ETFs, stocks, real estate, and other investments instead of constantly upgrading my lifestyle. You don't have to live like you're broke. You just have to stop spending all your income away, you can enjoy life AND build wealth. The trick is making sure you're doing both. 😀 Cheering everyone on.read more
The 4% rule was recently discussed and Ive also seen some misconception when it comes to safe withdraw strategies in retirement...the basic idea is pretty simple: If you have $1,000,000 invested, a 4% withdrawal rate means taking roughly $40,000 in your first year of retirement, then generally increasing that dollar amount with inflation. The research behind the 4% rule was built around roughly a 30-year retirement and a diversified portfolio. It's not a guarantee that your portfolio will earn 4% every year. It's a historical framework for surviving market crashes, inflation and different sequences of returns. But here's where I think some investors get confused. I've been seeing investors in covered-call ETFs saying things like: "My fund yields 8–10%, so I can withdraw 6-8% and still be fine." I don't think that's the right way to look at it. An 8–10% distribution does NOT mean your portfolio is generating an 8–10% total return. Covered-call ETFs generate income by selling call options. That can create a large cash distribution, but you're giving up some upside potential in exchange for that income. And some distributions can also be classified as return of capital, which isn't the same thing as the portfolio actually earning that amount. That's the part that can create a false sense of security. You see $10,000 deposited into your account and think "I'm living off the income. I'm not touching my principal." But the more important question is? What happened to the total value of my portfolio after that distribution? Cash flow ≠ return. That's why I personally don't want to build my retirement around chasing the highest possible yield. I've been seeing people talk about withdrawing 5%, 6%, 7%+ as if it's automatically sustainable because their ETF is distributing that much. It can work in certain circumstances. But there's a huge difference between: "My ETF pays me 8%." and "My portfolio can sustainably support an 8% withdrawal rate for the rest of my life." Those are two completely different things.The biggest problem with a high withdrawal rate is sequence-of-returns risk. Imagine retiring with $1M. If the market performs terribly during your first few years of retirement while you're withdrawing 6% or 7% every year, you're taking money out while the portfolio is down.That can permanently damage your portfolio's ability to recover. And the longer your retirement is, the more important this becomes. Obviously, real retirement planning is more complicated than multiplying your portfolio by a percentage. Taxes, pensions, CPP/OAS, inflation, asset allocation and spending changes all matter. The 4% rule isn't a magic number either. It's a guideline based on historical outcomes. For me, I'd rather build a portfolio large enough that I only need to withdraw 3-4%. And hopefully a much better chance of never having to worry about running out of money. The goal isn't just to retire. The goal is to stay retired. Hope this made sense and Happy Monday. read more
Fixed income’s quiet leaders are beginning to stand out. Real-return bond ETFs took the top two positions this week, while preferred-share strategies accounted for much of the remaining leaderboard. The mix suggests investors are looking beyond traditional bonds for inflation protection and alternative sources of yield. The weekly gains may appear modest, but in fixed income, where leadership is emerging can be more revealing than the headline return.
I see many beginners posting that they’re new to investing and don’t know where to start. 🤔 As someone who was in a similar situation just a few months ago and learned, here are the 4 ETF types (& ETFs) that are popular among long term investors 😃 : 1) S&P 500: US: $VOO / $SPY / $SPLG Canadian: $VFV / $ZSP / $TPU 2) GROWTH / TECH: US: $QQQ / $VUG / $VGT / $SCHG Canadian: $QQC / $HXQ / $TEC / $ZUQ 3) DIVIDENDS: US: $SCHD / $VYM / $DGRO Canadian: $VDY / $XEI 4) ALL IN ONE / BASKET / Global Exposure: US: $VT / $AVGE Canadian: $ZEQT / $XEQT / $TGRO / $VEQT / $ZGQ I noticed many people following this type of a basic / uncomplicated portfolio and are doing really well for themselves 🔥 For % allocation, you can divide evenly among the ETF categories or allocate a higher % based on your preferences. Just DCA regularly and you should be good. 😎 Some people even just put it all into an all in one etf like $XEQT. This is also a good approach - it is much simpler and it works. Ultimately, it comes to whatever you prefer 🙂 Oh and yea, there are overlaps, but I don’t think there is anything wrong in that though - it would just count as doubling down on good things. 💯 I’m sharing with you all what helped me, but don’t forget to do your own research too! 🙏🏼 read more
Red, red, and some more red to kick off the new week. 😅 I did manage to pick up some more ROL today though, that was a bright spot. 👍 What were your best and worst performing stocks today? Let me know in the comments! 👇
Fed hike fears are overran. 1 month ago odds were 44% for hike. Now looking at 60% . Material in between: Headline read on Labor market report very strong + jackson hole speech. Job gains in August were 98% women and was concentrated in Food Services and Drinking and Local Government Education but tripled expectations at 162k. This isn’t necessarily supportive of sustainable or effective socioeconomic growth. So thing is big picture is Fed Policy is dual mandated. Trump knows this this is why either half of the mandate can have quality at anytime but not both. Oil/inflation too hot but jobs report hot as well or oil/inflation cooling or managed short term but jobs report cold. Warsh please Trump which = no hike. End of year odds for hike 1 month ago were also 44%.
Started the journey of building my income portfolio just over 3 months ago and I just cracked over $1000 in dividends. I’m currently 95% of the way to my goal of $1000 per month in dividends. Almost There.
17 days after selling McDonald's ($MCD), I bought it back. But not because I'm lovin' the food… I first started buying MCD during the COVID crash in our taxable "overflow" account, at as low as $132, and ended up with 11 shares at a cost basis in the mid-$180s. Then our 20-year-old roof took storm damage, and we needed a new one, so we sold all of our McDonald's at $279 to help pay. But what surprised me most was that I missed owning it! This past Friday, I was working at the DeKalb, IL post office, and I could see a McDonald's from where I was. Every single time I looked up, people were going in and coming out. Then around lunch, two postal employees came back carrying McDonald's bags and drinks. That did it. On my lunch break, I sold some VTI and started a McDonald's position again. What's funny is that I almost never eat there. The only time I really do is at the airport, when we leave the house in a hurry and need something quick and cheap before boarding. But I don't have to be a customer. I just have to notice everybody else is. One thing I'm really lovin' is how former McDonald's CEO Harry Sonneborn famously said, McDonald's isn't in the burger business. It's in the real estate business. About 95% of the restaurants are run by franchisees who pay McDonald's rent and royalties, and McDonald's owns most of the land they sit on. That's why it has a very high 46% operating margin and 49 straight years of dividend raises (soon to be 50 years and a Dividend King this fall). One of McDonald's tasty twists is negative shareholder equity on paper, which sounds scary. It's not for two reasons: First, they've paid out more in dividends and buybacks over the years than they kept, and that's what drives the number below zero. Second, and what I find fascinating, is that all of McDonald's real estate is on the books at what they paid for it. So let's say they bought a corner lot for $700K in 1976, and it's worth $20 million today — the balance sheet still says $700K. McDonald's has a massive amount of hidden net worth that no ratio I know of shows. But I do have a bias I'm working through. Part of me wants to wait for $180 again, but that's dumb. The company earns more now than it did when my average cost was in the $180s. A more profitable business shouldn't sell for the same price it did five years ago. So instead of anchoring to an old price, I'm looking at what I'm paying for the earnings today: P/E, or price-to-earnings (showing how many dollars you're paying for each dollar of earnings), is about 20.8. Its average over the last nine years is about 26, so currently you'd pay $20.80 for every $1 of McDonald's earnings. Free cash flow yield, which shows you the exact percentage of actual cash a company makes compared to what its stock costs, is 4.3%. Its median is 3.15%. Dividend yield is 2.9%. Its 5-year average is 2.3%. By all three, this is the cheapest McDonald's has been in years. So, why is it down? U.S. traffic went soft. Lower-income consumers are pushing back on prices, and CEO Chris Kempczinski said on the last call: they don't have a strategy problem; they simply didn't execute at the level they needed to in the second quarter. I give him credit for honesty, but that's a strike against him, and I think his leash just got a lot shorter. And if you haven't seen the video of him eating the Big Arch burger, you have to watch it here. He got roasted because it looks like the man has never held or eaten a burger before! If things don't turn around soon, I think they'll replace him. But there's another thing you might not know: McDonald's corporate can recommend a price, but the franchisees don't have to follow it. Kempczinski said U.S. restaurants haven't consistently executed the discount strategy, and only about 60% to 65% of the system had put in the "under $3 menu," which is supposed to include 10 items. Thousands of independent owners, each doing their own thing. It's like herding cats, for better or worse. Turning around McDonald's is like turning around the aircraft carrier I served on, the USS John C. Stennis (CVN-74). It can't change direction like a small boat. It's slow, but once it turns, it turns. These things take time, and that's why I'm buying with confidence. What pushed me into buying was that parking lot in DeKalb that looked packed every time I looked at it. But the data says something different. U.S. same-store sales rose just 0.8% last quarter, and every bit of that came from higher checks — people spending more per visit — while fewer customers actually walked in. Placer.ai measured McDonald's U.S. visits down 4.5% from a year ago. So the lesson is that a busy lot doesn't tell you if it's busier than last year, and it turns out it wasn't. And on top of that, according to Inc., about 36% of McDonald's visitors come from areas where the median household income is under $50,000. Those are the people getting squeezed hardest right now, and they're the same customers McDonald's fumbled with its value menu. That looks like a broke-customer problem and a management problem, and both are fixable. I've been hearing since high school in the 1990s that McDonald's is finished. The Super Size Me documentary. Fitness fads. Fast casual dining. Now it's GLP-1s. It's 2026, and McDonald's is still growing, still profitable, and still the biggest restaurant company on earth. This looks like another in a long line of cycles, not a broken or dying business. Two things I'm watching, and if these break, I’ll reconsider adding more: U.S. guest counts. They need to stop falling and turn positive over the next few quarters. If traffic is still negative a year from now with a new value menu fully rolled out, then I was wrong, and it's structural. The October dividend raise. This would be year 50, and a solid raise of around 5% tells me management is confident. A token raise of 1% to 3% would be a warning. My plan: I'm buying in my Roth IRA, and I intend to never sell. Tax-free compounding, theoretically forever. In the $250s, I keep adding. The lower it goes, the more aggressively I buy. I don't use it. But I'm lovin' it. How about you? This is from the FREER weekly newsletter, which you can check out here 👉 https://dapper-dividends.kit.com/posts/i-never-eat-there-but-i-just-bought-the-stockread more
Let’s get a discussion going - if you were to build a 3 fund portfolio using of ETFs only Mine are $VTI $AOTG $XLE Drop yours in the comments? 👇read more
Strange to see both the Nazzy and S&P red while there are a great amount of positions over +5% on the day. Trade/buy with caution, you have PPI and CPI later this week as we creep closer to the Fed interest rate decision next week..
Originally published on Blossom on March 20th, 2024 Please find retrospective commentary at the end. All of the greatest investors have the performance to prove their greatness. But which one is the best? Which one is more in line with your investment strategy? Pull up the greatest investors. They have labels: Benjamin Graham The Value Investor Sir John Templeton The Contrarian Thomas Rowe Price, Jr. The Stock Picker for the Long-Term John Neff The Value with High Dividend Yield Investor Jesse Livermore The Trader Peter Lynch The Observationalist Investor George Soros The Big Bet, Short Term Speculator Warren Buffett Value for the Long Term Investor Jack Bogle The Index Investor Carl Icahn The Activist Investor Bill Gross The Bond King Investor As a new investor, I would urge you not to run into any classification or investment style. Instead, learn from these greats and build your investment strategy toolkit so you can apply the best investment for the ever changing current market conditions. I see posts all the TIME that say everyone has their investment strategy that works for them. But why limit your potential to a defined investment strategy? The reality is that different market conditions warrant different investment strategies. New investors should be accumulating all of these different tools in their toolbox just as a new homeowner would. In the world of investing, there’s TIMES where the market favors value investing or growth investing, or income investing, or index investing, or market cap size investing, international investing, etc. Why not develop knowledge in all and expertly apply the right tool for the right market? Have you ever had a need for a socket wrench but you grab the needle nose pliers (because that’s what you have available) and try to work out the screw? Back to the markets. There are both short and long periods of TIME (months or even decades) where one style can outperform another (e.g. growth vs. value, domestic vs. International, aggressive vs. Defensive, etc.). So suggest we start building the toolbox so we have the right tool for the right market. How did Bill Gross do with his bonds over the past decade of stock appreciation? How did investing in Japan over the past year do compared to investing in Japan over the prior 17 years? So it’s clear, the objective should be to learn all strategies. Later in this series, I plan to post how to develop an understanding of what kind of market you’re in so you can apply these newly acquired tools. But for now, quit calling yourself an ETF Investor, or a Momentum Investor, or a Tech Investor! You have the potential to be so much more than that.....so get busy and build your own toolbox by learning from the greats! Retrospective commentary - September 7th, 2026 Since the publication of KTS #3, TIME has obviously passed. And if this is your first TIME here, you will notice – as we re-post the whole KTS series – that we adjusted to the styles that the market dictated to us. We have said it countless TIMES: the meltup is a momentum market: speculation, liquidity injection, loose credit, rising prices of everything, and smallcaps re-emergining from hibernation was expected. International stocks were favored as well as the shift took place. So let's take a moment and look at how the various styles have actually performed since the original publication of KTS #3 in March 2024 (see attached chart). As expected, Japan and International, along with Growth and Momentum, have outperformed the S&P 500, while Value, dividend stocks, and the Aristocrats (defensive & dividend) have underperformed. Now, you might say: Beskar, this is simply normal, Growth outperforms Value and dividend stocks. And what about smallcaps? You said they would outperform, and they didn't. Yes, and yes. Growth does outperform over a long TIME. But in our study of the real estate/banking crisis cycle, we work within specific periods of TIME – that is how we read and listen to the markets. Growth outperforms over a long TIME. It does not outperform at all TIMES. As for smallcaps, keep reading. Total return since Liberation Day and year-to-date make the point for us. What about since Liberation Day (see attached chart)? Smallcaps jump two positions, moving ahead of International and the S&P 500. Momentum now leads Growth. That is the meltup: unloved areas and the speculative end of the market gaining ground as euphoria takes hold and liquidity is injected. As expected… until the music stops. Keep in mind this was published 18 months ago and the tempo of the music is getting faster and faster. 😉🥁 On to Year-to-Date now (see attached chart). Well, well, well. The story is changing, isn't it? Dividend stocks post the best total return year-to-date in 2026. They underperformed the market across both prior TIMEframes. Now they lead. What does that tell us about where we sit in the cycle? Growth has dropped hard and lost its place in the top three, now ahead of the S&P 500 by barely 1%. Momentum holds its top-three position – hype, euphoria, and liquidity injections have not faded… yet. One more observation. Since March 2024 and since Liberation Day, Value and the Aristocrats have underperformed the S&P 500 by wide margins (Value: -19% since March 2024, -15% since Liberation Day; Aristocrats: roughly -30% across both TIMEframes). Year-to-date, both sit within approximately 1% of the index. Again, what does that tell us about where we sit in the cycle? So, Beskar. What does that mean? How are you acting on it? First, let's recognize that developing your ability to read and listen to the markets and build a toolbox for every type of market – as shown above – is a winning strategy that gives us a chance to generate amazing double-digit outperformance over our rigid peers that only stick to one strategy. A total WIN. 🏆 In recent weeks, we published our analysis of the 2Q26 13F filings, dissecting the positioning of several whales in depth. In addition, most member-exclusive KTS, published since February 2026, are built around a specific theme reflecting our assessment of the current market status. This is just one component of how we express our ability to identify what strategy is warranted, in our opinion, and what signals for us a change in style and approach as we read and listen to the markets, while the Sector Surfer is our weekly compass, assessing the strength and investability of each sectors/subsectors. Our trade alert page shows members exactly how we are acting on this. So, are we noticing a real rotation? Are we changing our approach? Are we adapting in order to survive? This is what the membership gives you access to. We give our members a front-row seat to how Beskar Capital observes and acts. Remember, we want YOU all to Win! 🏆 I always give you my best. Natural selection is alive and well! 😂 This is the Way! 🏄🌊 read more
..... and counting.........using one single KTS #2 Tool. 😂🤣 And I told you exactly how to do it about two years ago. Seriously. Go check for yourself. Open your favorite accounts on this app right now and look at their all-TIME returns. I’ll wait. Nobody’s close. Most portfolios on this app? 😂🤣 In March 2024, I shared a simple ETF approach that could be used to READ, LISTEN to, and TIME the markets to achieve double-digit annualized returns. (KTS #2 – Follow the Sector.) On April 29, 2024, I bought one share of $XME and one share of $XES as part of the “This Is the Way” series to demonstrate the application of KTS #2. Here's yesterday's RE-POST of the original March 2024 post sharing the KTS #2 tool: https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/KTS-2-Follow-the-Sector-RE-POST__POST-1788528588432-2Vw4Cx2V_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML And here's the link to the "This is the Way" Series post: https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/This-is-the-Way-Series-1-KTS-2__POST-1714389509714-79HySrJi_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML Since April 1, 2025, these two subsectors have returned: $XME: +110% 🏆 $XES: +75% 🏆 While $SPY returned only half of XES and one-third of XME for a measly +38%. 🤢🤮 You could have simply followed my second KTS post and outperformed…….everyone. 🤑🤑🤑 Think about all the TIME you’ve spent building your portfolio since that date? 🤔 Think about how you are juggling the daily ups and downs of economic data, concerned about whether you should be in …. or out of the SpaceX IPO. Is the semiconductor rally over? Is Crypto a buy again? Is the Fed going to raise or cut rates? The country’s debt is unsustainable!?!?!? Silver & Gold are back???? What’s Michael Burry thinking? What’s BlackRock buying? Are software stocks back for good? What’s going on in the Middle East? China and North Korea!?!?!? Russia-Ukraine??? Whatever happened to the ESG movement? Is TRUMP just saying shit to keep markets propped up until the midterms? And is the SpaceX IPO – at the highest level of understanding – just Elon Musk selling a new crypto coin to the Teachers’ Unions??? 🤣😂 You think this helps you. But does it? Does half of what you read really matter? Maybe it’s interesting. Maybe you’d rather be catching every financial news development because it’s your passion. But is it necessary for portfolio outperformance? 🤔 The answer is no. No, it’s not. That should be music to your ears! 😀😃😄😁🙂😊 There are even popular members of this community who preach spending 50–100 hours researching a single company before investing 😂🤪🫨😳🤣😆. And their profile shows an all-TIME return of……………-1.65%! WTF!?!?? In the greatest bull market of their life 😂. Oh geez. Keep it up basement boy - maybe you’ll get there one day? 😂🤣 Meanwhile……. successful investors step back to see the big picture. They read the plan and the strategy we laid out. They see it playing out in real-TIME and are reaping the rewards of their intelligence – and got their weekends back. 😎 Answer this honestly. It’s April 29, 2024, and you get to run it again. Door 1: Buy XME and XES, close the app, and go live your life for two years. Door 2: Your “sophisticated” portfolio, your watchlist, your 100 hours of research, your swing trading. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah!!! 😂 Which door do you walk through? 🤔 I’ll give you 5 minutes to digest that……even though it should only take you 5 seconds. 😂 Or maybe you’re buying XEQT, VFV and other passive funds? Do you even know how just ONE measly percent of outperformance impacts your retirement age? 🤔😅 If not, read this: https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/Why-Outperforming-the-SandP-500-Index-Matters__POST-1712844746313-WeQtSmOp_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML Look at the chart attached and tell me which sector you would have wanted to own over the last 18 months. I’ll tell you what: my first pick wouldn’t be the line at the bottom (S&P 500), but that’s just me. Wanna know the best part? $XME and $XES have chopped sideways for most of this year (2026) building potential energy….and STILL beat virtually everyone on this app. Now wait until that coiled energy converts to kinetic energy! 🚀👩🚀😅😂🤑🤑🤑 And the party isn’t over. I told you when I bought it..…and you had a 2-year window to enjoy my content for free and learn an alternative approach designed to outperform any type of market. The ones who could recognize the true value and listen are now members because they understand that they can outperform for the rest of their lives by stepping back and reading the market instead of the news within the context of the real estate/banking crisis cycle. They’re also the only ones who’ll know when $XES and $XME aren’t favored sectors anymore. Always remember that I want you all to win! But I can’t do it for you. You have to recognize for yourself that conventionalist propaganda will never allow you to outperform… and take the steps to change that. Learn about membership here: https://www.beskarcapitalkts.com/ Natural selection is alive and well. I always give you my best. 🏆 This is the Way! 🏄🌊 read more
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SPY$770.00Calls
Sep 11
$2.39
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